Sean Selman
Institute Communications and Public Affairs
404-894-6016
e-mail: sean.selman@icpa.gatech.edu

Chances FAQ

"The odds of winning this Powerball drawing were about one in 80 million," said Professor Michael Lacey in Georgia Tech’s School of Mathematics. Lacey, an expert on probability, said a person’s chance of winning the drawing is determined by the way the lottery balls are selected.
In theory, people who play a lottery can increase their chances of winning by buying more than one ticket, he added. However, in the case of the Powerball drawing’s 80 million-to-1 odds, players would have to buy at least $330 million in tickets to give themselves a running chance of winning the jackpot.

"It’s just not a good bet," Lacey said. "The population of the United States is about 320 million. So, if every person in the United States bought one ticket, there would be about four winners. Based on those odds, an individual would be far more likely to become a U.S. Supreme Court justice, or even the president
of the United States, than a lottery winner."

How can people increase their odds of winning?

"This is a fun question," Lacey said. "The answer would have to be based on how you believe players tend to chose their lottery numbers. If they tend to select birthdates or anniversary dates, then those types of numbers will tend to be over selected. These numbers would be one to 12, for the month; one to 31, for the date; and, say, 40 to 55 for the year.

"But it is important to remember that this does not make these numbers less likely to be winners," he said. "The lottery balls bounce around in a random way, not caring how people select their numbers. But it does make winning combinations with these numbers likely to be shared among a larger number of winners."

Gamers might give themselves better odds of winning by playing a game of Roulette instead. With a spin of the wheel, a ball in Roulette could fall into one of 18 red compartments, 18 black compartments or two green compartments. By placing a bet on, say, a red number, gamers could give themselves near-even chances of winning, Lacey said.

"Roulette is one of the fairest games of chance in Las Vegas," he said. That’s because Roulette is a simple game of colors. Because about half of the numbers in the game are red and the other half are black -- minus the casino advantage of green 0 and 00 compartments -- a bet on a red or black number coming up has almost a 50-50 chance of winning.

"To be exact, Roulette offers 18 out of 38 chances of winning. But 18/38 is just less than 1/2, so it does tend to be a losing bet," Lacey said. "An easy way to remember it is that a dollar bet is about a nickel lost. That nickel lost, over thousands of bets, adds up to big profits for casinos!"

For more information contact Professor Michael Lacey,
(404) 894-9237 or [lacey@math.gatech.edu ].