The course will introduce the basic notion of probability theory. The focus will be both on mathematical derivation and on the discussion of applications. The course is meant to be the first of a two courses series on Probability and Statistics.

The text that will be used is:

Geoffrey Grimmet & Dominic Welsh, **Probability. An Introduction**,
2nd ed., Oxford

The syllabus can be found here.

There will be two midterm.

The exercise listed are for HW collection. I will collect them every othewr week and grade 2 or 3 exercises among the one assigned.

The final grade will be based on the following rules: 45% final, 40% midterms, 15% HW. Curving will be done on the final result. The possibility of personal project will be discussed later during the class.

The first midterm is tentatively scheduled for**First week.**

Material covered: Chapter 1 sections 1.1 to 1.6.

Exercises: 1.10, 1.17, 1.21, 1.27, 1.30.

**Second week.**

Material covered: Chapter 1 sections 1.7 to 1.10, Chapter 2 sections 2.1, 2.2.

Exercises:1.44, 1.52.

Problems: 9, 14, 17.

Solution set for the first HW.

**Third week.**

Material covered: Chapter 2 sections 2.3 to 2.5.

Exercises: 2.10, 2.11, 2.24, 2.38.

Problems: 4, 5, 7.

**Fourth week.**

Material covered: Chapter 3.

Exercises: 3.8, 3.25, 3.42.

Problems: 4, 7.

Solution set for the second HW.

**Fifth week.**

Material covered: Chapter 4.

Exercises: 4.18, 4.41.

Problems: 5.

The first midterm will be on Thursday February 21. It will cover Chapter 1 to 4 of the book. Here is some practice material from previous years thanks to prof. Houdré: Spring 18 and Fall 18. On Tuesday February 19 we will have a review class for the midterm.

Solution set for the third HW.

Solution set for the first midterm.

**Sixth week.**

Material covered: Chapter 5.

Exercises: 5.13, 5.18, 5.30, 5.32, 5.54.

Problems: 7, 11

**Seventh week.**

Material covered: Chapter 6 sections 1 to 5.

Exercises: 6.14, 6.26, 6.36, 6.45, 6.55.

**Eigthth week.**

Midterm and midterm solution.

**Nineth week.**

Material covered: Chapter 6 sections 6 to 7.

Exercises: 6.61, 6.70, 6.80.

Problems: 6, 20

**Tenth week.**

Material covered: Chapter 6 sections 8 and Chapter 7 section 2 to 3.

Exercises: 7.10, 7.36.

Solution set for the forth HW.

**Eleventh week.**

Review and Test

The second midterm will be on Thursday March 28. It will cover up to Chapter 6 and concentrate on Chapter 5 and 6 of the book. Here is some practice material from previous years thanks to prof. Houdré: Spring 18 and Fall 18. On Tuesday March 26 we will have a review class for the midterm.

Solution set for the second midterm.

**Twelfth week.**

Material covered: Chapter 7 sections 4 and 5.

Exercises: 7.60, 7.75

**Thirteenth week.**

Material covered: Chapter 7 section 6 and chapter 8 sections 1 and 2.

Exercises: 7.96, 8.10, 8.11

Problems for chapter 7: 8, 11.